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IRAQ - Gulf War 2 special

Geopolitical background, military news, comment and analysis.

Geopolitical Background Our analysis of US Global Strategy, The Project For The New American Century, Pax Americana, The Bush Doctrine, US Middle East Strategy.
War Diary Progress of the war.
Links News resources, perspectives, geopolitical links, military links.

WAR DIARY (continues below)

PROVISIONAL CONCLUSION as at 9 April 2003, revised 13 April 2003

The war isn't over and neither is this diary, but with the immanent threat of war being extended into Syria, it seems appropriate to draw some provisional conclusions. At first the Iraqi strategy looked like a weak hand well played. Iraqi resistance in Umm Qasr, Najaf, Nasariya and Basra was courageous and tenacious, and it looked at one point as if the Coalition forces had been stopped in their tracks. But they recovered and made a quick advance on Baghdad to find that resistance there was a great deal less effective than expected. Despite Iraqi courage and some isolated successes, Scud missiles and old Soviet tanks proved no match for satellite intelligence, air superiority, guided missiles and bombs, night-vision capability and vastly superior AFVs. The Iraqis suffered from hopeless technological disparity, even within the city of Baghdad which was widely supposed to become another Stalingrad. Although there may yet be another, Vietnam-style, stage to the war, events to date can only encourage further US adventures in the Middle East, very probably involving an invasion of Syria and an air strike at Iran's nuclear infrastructure. To have any chance of success Syria and other countries faced with US attack will need to invest in night-vision equipment and light and easily concealed anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry.

Monday 21 April 2003

The Sydney Morning Herald reported "US wants to keep Iraqi bases", confirming one of the real objectives for the invasion of Iraq. The four bases will be: "Baghdad's international airport; Tallil, near Nasiriyah; an isolated airstrip called H-1 in the western desert; and Bashur airfield in the Kurdish north."

Friday 18 April 2003

"Tens of thousands of Iraqi Muslims took to the streets of Baghdad after Friday prayers today to demand the departure of U.S. and other foreign troops and the establishment of an Islamic state," reported the Washington Post. The protestors were composed of Shia and Sunni Moslems.

The Chicago Sun-Times reported a Hebrew language interview in the Tel Aviv Maariv in which the Israeli Defence Minister, Shaul Mofaz, outlined a list of Israeli demands on Syria which he audaciously declared could be "done through Americans".

Thursday 17 April 2003

Robert Fisk reported on anti-US feelings among the "liberated" Shias.

US forces have been ordered to enter Syria to snatch or kill Saddam Hussein if he is discovered there. The proposal "was condemned by British military officers as a breach of international law that would add to regional instability."

The World Tribune reported "U.S. concentrating forces near Syrian border".

The Washington Times reported "Hawks recycle arguments for Iraq war against Syria"

Wednesday 16 April 2003

US forces are reported to be massing on the Syrian border.

Tuesday 15 April 2003

Dismissing suggestions of a planned US-UK attack on Iraq's neighbour as another "conspiracy theory", Tony Blair said yesterday that he had "no plans whatsoever" to invade Syria. The reference to "conspiracy theory" is a recognition of the fact that awareness of the Neocon cabal directing US foreign policy is now widespread in the British media, even if this awareness falls below the consciousness level of the general public. Students of British Parliamentary rhetoric will also be aware that when a politician says he has no plans, this has a peculiarly subtle meaning and is often followed by action demonstrating the complete opposite.

A US-sponsored meeting of post-Saddam Iraqi factions in Nasiriyah was boycotted by the main Shia organisation, the Supreme Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (Sciri), because it did not want to participate in an American-sponsored attempt to create a puppet regime. There was a huge Shia demonstration outside the meeting calling for rule by the ayatollahs. Having crushed a Sunni/Ba'athist Iraq, the US is now confronted with the possibility of a Shia-led Iraq allied to Iran.

In Mosul US troops opened fire on a crowd protesting against a US-imposed governor, killing 12 and wounding 60.

Monday 14 April 2003

Tikrit, Saddam Hussein's home town and the last major Iraqi stronghold, fell to US forces. In terms of conventional forces the war is largely over.

Sunday 13 April 2003

The collapse of civil order and the failure of US forces to control looting has brought Iraq to the brink of civil war. There are not only ethno-religious tensions between Shias, Sunnis and Kurds, but a serious confrontation has developed between different religious factions within the majority Shia population.

Targets of looting have included the National Museum in Baghdad. Donald Rumsfeld has been joking about the looting of hisorical artefacts, but as Al Jazeera stated: "The US may be the strongest nation in the world, but their history is incomparable to that of Iraq – a region that has been described as the cradle of civilization."

The Observer (UK) reported on US plans to tackle the Lebanese Shia group Hizbollah and its Syrian sponsors, supposedly as part of a general settlement to the Israel-Palestine problem. Ha'aretz (Israel) reported on Israeli pressure on the US to tackle both Syria and Iran. In an escalation of rhetoric aimed against Syria, President Bush accused Syria of having chemical weapons, the accusation which was used as the main pretext for the US attack on Iraq.

The battle for Tikrit has commenced .

Saturday 12 April 2003

Iraqi vigilantes are combatting looting in Baghdad.

President Bush urged Syria to shut its borders to fleeing followers of Saddam Hussein. "And if they are in their country, we expect the Syrian authorities to turn them over to the proper folks," he added. The area around the town of Al Qaim on the Iraqi-Syrian border is meanwhile the focus of concentrated US action.

The chief weapons inspector Hans Blix has claimed that war against Iraq was a foregone conclusion months before the first shot was fired. The Guardian reported: 'In a scathing attack on Britain and the US, Mr Blix accused them of planning the war "well in advance" and of "fabricating" evidence against Iraq to justify their campaign.'

Amer Hammoudi al-Saadi, Iraq's top scientific adviser and the man who had liaised with U.N. weapons inspectors, gave himself up to US forces. He still insisting that Iraq did not have weapons of mass destruction.

Friday 11 April 2003

Mosul, Iraq’s third city, has capitulated to Kurdish and US forces. With the collapse of civil authority, looting in Baghdad is completely out of control and has extended to stealing medical equipment from hospitals. American forces are still fighting the war, not suited to civil control and thin on the ground, but they are under an obligation to maintain law and order and will pay a political cost if they fail to do so.

A wider photographic view of the scene in which Saddam Hussein’s statue was toppled in Baghdad's Fardus Square suggests that this was an orchestrated event involving only a small number of people ringed by US tanks. A man pictured greeting US Marines in the centre of Baghdad appears to be one of Ahmed Chalabi's militiamen, earlier flown into Nasariyah by the Americans. Chalabi, head of the London-based Iraq National Congress, is the Pentagon's favoured figure for heading a US client state although he is wanted in Jordan for bank fraud.

In another propaganda move calculated to spread terror, the Pentagon indicated that it was deploying the 21,000 lb massive ordnance air burst (MOAB) bomb, the largest non-nuclear device in the US arsenal.

The Americans have issued a list of 55 Iraqi leaders whom they want to get dead or alive.

Thursday 10 April 2003

Fighting continues in Baghdad with a fierce gun battle reported between US Marines and elements of the Republican Guard on the banks of the Tigris. Iraqi forces are expected to make a last stand in Tikrit, but Kut also still remains in Iraqi hands.

The Kurds have taken the oil-rich town of Kirkuk, apparently against US wishes, and this could provoke Turkish intervention. Kirkuk is populated by Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen, who are ethnically related to the Turks. The Turks are opposed to an independent Kurdistan - especially to one including Kirkuk - as it would be viable, rich and encourage secession in the Kurdish part of Turkey. The Kurds occupy north-east Iraq, western Iran, the eastern tip of Syria and a very large part of south-east Turkey. All the countries with Kurdish minorities have an interest in keeping Kurdistan off official maps. But the existing Kurdish autonomous region of Iraq is itself currently divided between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) in the west and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in the east, which is a source of instability and weakness.

As the Kurds and Shia Moslems rise to fill the vacuum left by the defeat of Saddam's Sunni/Ba'athist leadership, the American occupation forces are already finding it difficult to control events. The Pentagon may already be regretting the emphasis they began to place on the concept of liberation.

Wednesday 9 April 2003

US Marines moved into the Shia suburb of Saddam City in eastern Baghdad overnight where they were welcomed. US forces which had been advancing from three directions now have the equivalent of an armoured brigade in the city and are planning to double that within the next 24 hours. US forces now dominate but don't entirely control Baghdad. Isolated Iraqi resistance continues, but not on the scale predicted. Baghdad has followed Basra in the widespread outbreak of looting. Coalition forces are yet to occupy the northern cities of Mosul, Kirkuk and Tikrit, Saddam's home city and stronghold.

The BBC reported at 1852 that: "US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld says Syria has been ignoring a warning he gave last week about giving military assistance to Iraq and that some senior Iraqis were fleeing to Syria." Given long expressed intentions and more recent Israeli accusations that Saddam has hidden his alleged weapons of mass destruction in Syria, it seems highly likely that US forces will be rolling on to Damascus before too long.

Tuesday 8 April 2003

Iraqi forces in Baghdad counter-attacked the US forces which had occupied and were still holding the administrative centre on the west bank of the Tigris. US tanks moved eastwards across the Jumhuriya bridge and one fired on the Palestine Hotel on the east bank killing two journalists. An A-10 was lost over western Baghdad.

Monday 7 April 2003

US forces launched a major attack into the centre of Baghdad from the north-west. The American task force consisted of about 100 tanks and other AFVs and was supported by mortars and A-10 Thunderbolt 'tank busters'. The US forces captured the Information Ministry and a presidential palace. Oil fires and the smoke from military action had reduced visibility on the ground to about 500 yards. The situation was confused but it seemed that the probe might hold ground permanently depending on the strength of resistance.

Sunday 6 April 2003

Following Saturday's incursion into south-west Baghdad (described by one US soldier as a "drive-by shooting") a very large armoured column was reported to be heading for the city. TV footage of the earlier raid on Dawra was spectacular. Some two dozen Abrams tanks and a dozen Bradley fighting vehicles from the 3rd Infantry Division swept up Route Eight into Baghdad's south-west suburb and were filmed shooting-up civilian vehicles. They also met stiff fire, and at least one Abrams tank was disabled.

The propaganda war was also hotting up with conflicting and even ridiculous claims being made by both sides. The Iraqis had obviously not recaptured the airport, but neither had US troops penetrated to 'down-town' Baghdad. For outright bias delivered with gung-ho relish, however, it's hard to beat Fox News whose commentators would surely like to kill a few Iraqis themselves.

Elsewhere, fierce fighting had been occurring at Karbala, while British forces launched a major assault in Basra increasing their domination of the city. The Kurdish 'Peshmerga' forces were making little progress in the north, partly due to lack of armour and otherwise due to the characteristic behaviour one expects from tribal irregulars.

Saturday 5 April 2003

Contrary to expectations Coalition forces met relatively little resistance in their approach towards the outskirts of Baghdad which they were now probing. Even the airport was only lightly defended, a wise decision by the Iraqis as any positions there would have been highly exposed and easily destroyed by superior US firepower. The whereabouts of the Iraqi forces remained a mystery. The relatively low number of prisoners taken and the relatively small amount of equipment left on the ground did not account for the Iraqi formations that were supposed to have been destroyed. It was only the spearheads of the two main attacking forces which had reached Baghdad. The forces were currently strung out in long columns and could have been vulnerable if there were large numbers of undefeated Iraqi troops still at large outside Baghdad, especially if the sandstorms had begun again.

Despite the mainstream media focus on Baghdad, battles continued in the other urban centres lying on the US supply routes.

Friday 4 April 2003

US forces completed their takeover of the airport which is 12 miles to the west of the administrative centre of Baghdad. Baghdad was defended by the Hammurabi Division to the west, the Medina Division to the south and the Nida Division to the east. These Divisions may have lost equipment, but it seemed likely that most of their manpower would have melted back into the city. Baghdad lost power and water. The cause of this was unknown but there was speculation that a Blackout Bomb may have been used. This contains numerous chemically treated carbon graphite filaments which short-circuit electrical power distribution equipment. Coalition Special Forces were claimed to be operating in the city having come in under cover of darkness.

British troops moved further into Basra and the Iraqis lost more territory to the Kurds in the north.

UPI reported that Iran was planning to infiltrate "irregular paramilitary units across their border with Iraq to harass American soldiers once Saddam Hussein's regime" had fallen.

Thursday 3 April 2003

Iraqi forces near Karbala brought down a Black Hawk transport helicopter with small arms fire and an FA-18 Hornet jet with a SAM.

Elements of the Republican Guard's Hammurabi Mechanised Division were moving south from Baghdad to block Coalition forces.

After days in which the Coalition forces were repeatedly described as being "only 50 miles from Baghdad" it was reported that some were within 20 miles of the city's outskirts.

British forces continued to besiege Basra, gradually tightening the noose, although they were leaving an escape corridor. The British Press made much of the fact that while the British are cool, disciplined and good at dealing with the locals, the Americans are gung-ho, jumpy and have an antagonistic attitude towards Iraqi civilians. British forces did, however, admit the use of cluster bombs against concentrations of Iraqi fighters in Basra. Cluster-bomb rounds were being fired from the AS-90 255mm self-propelled howitzer. The bomblets scatter over a wide area and some 5 per cent fail to explode on impact leaving a residual threat to civilians.

Later in the day Coalition and Iraqi forces were reported to be contesting Saddam International Airport. Another account suggested that Coalition forces had already captured it. The Pentagon claimed that two Iraqi divisions had been destoryed, but journalist Gavin Hewitt with the US Army's 3rd Infantry Division reported "few signs of the burnt-out tanks or the bodies expected if an entire Iraqi division had been destroyed."

Wednesday 2 April 2003

Coalition forces surrounded the holy city of Karbala and were moving north of it to capture the Karbala-Al Iskandariyah-Al Hillah triangle. Coalition forces claimed that the Medina Division of the Republican Guard defending this side of Baghdad had been reduced to half strength by the relentless aerial bombardment.

Tne 1st Marine Division advancing from Nasiryah appeared to have brushed past the outer defences of the Republican Guard's Baghdad Division at Kut, and then turned westwards to proceed along the main highway to Baghdad. Another account claimed that the Baghdad Divison had been destroyed rather than isolated.

Fighting was also reported at Diwaniyah, due east of Najaf. Fighting continued at Najaf, Nasiriyah and Basra. While it was possible to contain Karbala and Basra, Coalition forces had been forced to fight for Najaf and Nasiriyah because they command crossing points over the Euphrates.

The American public was being prepared for heavy casualties in the assault on Baghdad, a prospect guaranteed by Rumsfeld's commitment to "unconditional surrender".

Tuesday 1 April 2003

Fighting continued at Hindiya, Najaf, Nasiryah and Shatra, which is north of Nasiryah on the road to Al Kut, as well as at Basra.

In Najaf US troops fired on a vehicle at a checkpoint killing women and children. This was not the first incident of this sort, but it was the first to gain major media publicity. At this point, more British troops had been killed by American than Iraqi fire.

Monday 31 March 2003

Coalition forces attempted to regain the initiative with heavy fighting at Najaf, Samawah and Nasiriyah to consolidate lines of supply. There was also some indication of a renewed advance with fighting to the east of Karbala at Hindiya.

Newsweek (7 April 2003 issue) reported that the two Abrams M1A1 tanks lost at Samawah (the first two ever to be lost in battle) were knocked out by Russian AT-14 Kornet ATGMs.

Seymour Hersh wrote in The New Yorker magazine that on at least six occasions Donald Rumsfeld had demanded and succeeded in reducing the planned commitment of ground troops. The same report suggested that carriers are running out of satellite-guided bombs and that “much of the supply of Tomahawk guided missiles has been expended”.

In an address to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, Colin Powell followed Donald Rumsfeld in issuing warnings to Syria and Iran.

Sunday 30 March 2003

An article from a journalist embedded with US Marines at Nasiriyah, 'US Marines turn fire on civilians at the bridge of death', provided a graphic and disturbing account of how in response to guerrilla resistance they have developed a trigger-happy attitude to Iraqi civilians, evoking strong memories of Vietnam. US artillery shelled the city while helicopter gunships fired rockets into waterfront buildings. Although the Iraqis failed to destroy the bridges, Nasiriyah and Najaf had both proved to be effective pinch-points. Pictures of an Abrams tank and a military bulldozer captured by the Iraqis were shown on televison.

Fighting continued in Basra where British forces were attempting to close off the north-east to Iraqi reinforcement.

Saturday 29 March 2003

By now the Coalition's initial strategy had appeared to fail. A military analyst in The Times reported that over 40 per cent of Coalition ground combat strength was now assigned to protection of the rear. The Times also corroborated Internet reports that the Pentagon was delaying the publication of casualty figures.

It seemed that the next main battle would probably be at Karbala which was defended by the Medina Division of the Republican Guard with 10-12,000 men and some 200 T72 tanks.

Fighting contnued at an-Najaf (population 500,000) and al-Nasiriyah (population 270,000) where the Coalition supply line supporting the salient trying to push towards al-Kut crosses two bridges vulnerable to enemy action, one over the Euphrates and another over a canal running parallel to it.

Friday 28 March 2003

The German webzine Telepolis discussed the views of German historians who believe that if the regime survived it would be impossible for Coalition forces to conquer Baghdad without destroying it. An English-language translation can be found on the Russian website, IRAQWAR.RU. The second translation is the best.

It was now obvious that the Coalition advance has stalled. The most suprising admission came from the US Army's senior ground commander in Iraq, Lt Gen William S Wallace of V Corps, who had complained that: "The enemy we're fighting is a bit different than the one we war-gamed against because of these paramilitary forces..."

Richard Perle - one of the war's major architects – resigned as Chairman of the Pentagon’s Policy Advisory Board following conflict-of-interest allegations. He remained as an ordinary member.

Criticised for his optimistically economical deployment of troops, Donald Rumsfeld announced plans to double the US troop commitment. Despite the prediction by Rumsfeld protege Kenneth "Bomb Iraq Now!" Adelman that a war against Iraq would be a "cakewalk", Coalition forces obviously do not have enough troops to mount a major assault on Baghdad whilst protecting their over-stretched line of supply, and would now have to await reinforcements before the campaign could be progressed further.

Rumsfeld accused Syria of supplying Iraq with night-vision goggles and other "military equipment", and threatened that it would be held accountable. He also threatened Iran over the alleged infiltration of members of the Badr Corps, Iranian-trained Iraqi oppositionists.

21 - 27 March 2003

The war began ahead of schedule with an unsuccessful attempt to assassinate Saddam Hussein in an air strike. The concept of essentially air power-orientated "effects based warfare" - colloquially referred to as "shock and awe" - was developed by by US defence analyst Harlan Ullman.

The initial US advance was rapid, but that was through empty desert. Contrary to expectations, the Iraqis did not welcome invading troops with flowers, the Iraqi armed forces did not collapse and the Iraqi government was not overthrown. In fact the Iraqi resistance proved to be motivated, fierce and skillfully conducted.

The Iraqis failed to blow the bridges over the Euphrates, but conducted guerrilla attacks on rear-echelon troops in a string of towns along the river. Fierce fighting was reported in Karbala, an-Najaf, Samawah and al-Nasiriyah, threatening the US supply line. The Coalition advance was also severely hampered by serious sandstorms. In the Shi'ite south, US Marines failed to secure Umm Qasr and this job was taken over by the British Royal Marines. The predicted capitulation of Iraq's second city of Basra failed to occur, creating another threat to Coalition supply lines. A city that was supposed to be liberated or contained and by-passed was declared to be a military target and actively besieged by UK forces. A tank battle between 14 British Challenger IIs and 14 Iraqi T55s resulted in total elimination of the latter owing to the vastly superior fire-control systems of the former. 1000 US troops were parachuted into Kurdish territory to open a northern front, a rather eccentric gesture as others arrived by helicopter. Although some Kurds were collaborating with the Americans, most were probably hanging back in case of intervention by America's other ally, the Turks.

The allies appeared to have pursued a classic Blitzkrieg strategy - a penetration in depth on a narrow front, the disruption of rear areas, the fracturing of lines of communication, and , above all, great encirclements. But the Iraqis didn’t provide any forces to be encircled, and the US forces appeared to be facing a 'Battle of Stalingrad' with their line of supply under threat at several points. In the sense that things did not work out as planned, the Coalition suffered a defeat.

© armed-combat.com 25 March 2003. Last update is latest date in diary.

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