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IRAQ - Gulf War 2 special
Geopolitical background,
military news, comment and analysis. |
| Geopolitical Background |
Our analysis of US Global Strategy, The Project
For The New American Century, Pax Americana, The Bush Doctrine, US
Middle East Strategy. |
| War Diary |
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WAR DIARY (continues below)
PROVISIONAL CONCLUSION as at 9 April 2003, revised
13 April 2003
The war isn't over and neither is this diary, but with the immanent
threat of war being extended into Syria, it seems appropriate to
draw some provisional conclusions. At first the Iraqi strategy looked
like a weak hand well played. Iraqi resistance in Umm Qasr, Najaf,
Nasariya and Basra was courageous and tenacious, and it looked at
one point as if the Coalition forces had been stopped in their tracks.
But they recovered and made a quick advance on Baghdad to find that
resistance there was a great deal less effective than expected.
Despite Iraqi courage and some isolated successes, Scud missiles
and old Soviet tanks proved no match for satellite intelligence,
air superiority, guided missiles and bombs, night-vision capability
and vastly superior AFVs. The Iraqis suffered from hopeless technological
disparity, even within the city of Baghdad which was widely supposed
to become another Stalingrad. Although there may yet be another,
Vietnam-style, stage to the war, events to date can only encourage
further US adventures in the Middle East, very probably involving
an invasion of Syria and an air strike at Iran's nuclear infrastructure.
To have any chance of success Syria and other countries faced with
US attack will need to invest in night-vision equipment and light
and easily concealed anti-tank and anti-aircraft weaponry. |
Monday
21 April 2003
The Sydney Morning Herald reported
"US wants to keep Iraqi bases", confirming one of the real objectives
for the invasion of Iraq. The four bases will be: "Baghdad's international
airport; Tallil, near Nasiriyah; an isolated airstrip called H-1 in the
western desert; and Bashur airfield in the Kurdish north."
Friday 18 April 2003
"Tens of thousands of Iraqi Muslims took to the streets of Baghdad
after Friday prayers today to demand the departure of U.S. and other foreign
troops and the establishment of an Islamic state," reported
the Washington Post. The protestors were composed of Shia and
Sunni Moslems.
The Chicago Sun-Times reported
a Hebrew language interview in the Tel Aviv Maariv in which the
Israeli Defence Minister, Shaul Mofaz, outlined a list
of Israeli demands on Syria which he audaciously declared could be "done
through Americans".
Thursday 17 April 2003
Robert Fisk reported
on anti-US feelings among the "liberated" Shias.
US forces have
been ordered to enter Syria to snatch or kill Saddam Hussein
if he is discovered there. The proposal "was condemned by British
military officers as a breach of international law that would add to regional
instability."
The World Tribune reported
"U.S. concentrating forces near Syrian border".
The Washington Times reported
"Hawks recycle arguments for Iraq war against Syria"
Wednesday 16 April 2003
US forces are reported
to be massing on the Syrian border.
Tuesday 15 April 2003
Dismissing
suggestions of a planned US-UK attack on Iraq's neighbour as another "conspiracy
theory", Tony Blair said yesterday that he had "no plans whatsoever"
to invade Syria. The reference to "conspiracy theory" is a recognition
of the fact that awareness of the Neocon cabal directing US foreign policy
is now widespread in the British media, even if this awareness falls below
the consciousness level of the general public. Students of British Parliamentary
rhetoric will also be aware that when a politician says he has no plans,
this has a peculiarly subtle meaning and is often followed by action demonstrating
the complete opposite.
A US-sponsored meeting of post-Saddam Iraqi factions in Nasiriyah
was boycotted by the main Shia organisation, the Supreme Council for the
Islamic Revolution in Iraq (Sciri), because it did not want to participate
in an American-sponsored attempt to create a puppet regime. There was
a huge Shia demonstration outside the meeting calling for rule by the
ayatollahs. Having crushed a Sunni/Ba'athist Iraq, the US is now confronted
with the possibility of a Shia-led Iraq allied to Iran.
In Mosul US troops opened fire on a crowd protesting
against a US-imposed governor, killing 12 and wounding 60.
Monday 14 April 2003
Tikrit, Saddam Hussein's home town and the last major
Iraqi stronghold, fell to US forces. In terms of conventional forces the
war is largely over.
Sunday 13 April 2003
The collapse of civil order and the failure of US forces to control looting
has brought Iraq to the brink of civil war. There are not only ethno-religious
tensions between Shias, Sunnis and Kurds, but a serious confrontation
has developed between different religious factions within the majority
Shia population.
Targets of looting have included the National Museum in Baghdad. Donald
Rumsfeld has
been joking about the looting of hisorical artefacts, but as Al
Jazeera stated: "The US may be the strongest nation in the world,
but their history is incomparable to that of Iraq – a region that
has been described as the cradle of civilization."
The Observer (UK) reported
on US plans to tackle the Lebanese Shia group Hizbollah and its Syrian
sponsors, supposedly as part of a general settlement to the Israel-Palestine
problem. Ha'aretz (Israel) reported
on Israeli pressure on the US to tackle both Syria and Iran. In an escalation
of rhetoric aimed against Syria, President Bush accused
Syria of having chemical weapons, the accusation which was used as the
main pretext for the US attack on Iraq.
The battle for Tikrit has
commenced .
Saturday 12 April 2003
Iraqi vigilantes are combatting looting in Baghdad.
President Bush urged
Syria to shut its borders to fleeing followers of Saddam Hussein.
"And if they are in their country, we expect the Syrian authorities
to turn them over to the proper folks," he added. The area around
the town of Al Qaim on the Iraqi-Syrian border is meanwhile
the
focus of concentrated US action.
The chief weapons inspector Hans Blix has claimed that
war against Iraq was a foregone conclusion months before the first shot
was fired. The Guardian reported:
'In a scathing attack on Britain and the US, Mr Blix accused them of planning
the war "well in advance" and of "fabricating" evidence
against Iraq to justify their campaign.'
Amer Hammoudi al-Saadi, Iraq's top scientific adviser
and the man who had liaised with U.N. weapons inspectors, gave
himself up to US forces. He still insisting that Iraq did not have
weapons of mass destruction.
Friday 11 April 2003
Mosul, Iraq’s third city, has capitulated to Kurdish
and US forces. With the collapse of civil authority, looting in Baghdad
is completely out of control and has extended to stealing medical equipment
from hospitals. American forces are still fighting the war, not suited
to civil control and thin on the ground, but they are under an obligation
to maintain law and order and will pay a political cost if they fail to
do so.
A
wider photographic view of the scene in which Saddam Hussein’s
statue was toppled in Baghdad's Fardus Square suggests that this was an
orchestrated event involving only a small number of people ringed by US
tanks. A man pictured greeting US Marines in the centre of Baghdad appears
to be one of Ahmed
Chalabi's militiamen, earlier flown into Nasariyah
by the Americans. Chalabi, head of the London-based Iraq National
Congress, is the Pentagon's favoured figure for heading a US
client state although
he is wanted in Jordan for bank fraud.
In another propaganda move calculated to spread terror, the Pentagon
indicated that it was deploying the 21,000
lb massive ordnance air burst (MOAB) bomb, the largest non-nuclear
device in the US arsenal.
The Americans have issued a list of 55 Iraqi leaders whom they want to
get dead or alive.
Thursday 10 April 2003
Fighting continues in Baghdad with a fierce gun battle
reported between US Marines and elements of the Republican Guard on the
banks of the Tigris. Iraqi forces are expected to make a last stand in
Tikrit, but Kut also still remains in
Iraqi hands.
The Kurds have taken the oil-rich town of Kirkuk, apparently
against US wishes, and this could provoke Turkish intervention. Kirkuk
is populated by Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen, who are ethnically related to
the Turks. The Turks are opposed to an independent Kurdistan - especially
to one including Kirkuk - as it would be viable, rich and encourage secession
in the Kurdish part of Turkey. The Kurds occupy north-east Iraq, western
Iran, the eastern tip of Syria and a very large part of south-east Turkey.
All the countries with Kurdish minorities have an interest in keeping
Kurdistan off official maps. But the existing Kurdish autonomous region
of Iraq is itself currently
divided between the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) in the west and
the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in the east, which is a source
of instability and weakness.
As the Kurds and Shia Moslems rise to fill the vacuum left by the defeat
of Saddam's Sunni/Ba'athist leadership, the American occupation forces
are already finding it difficult to control events. The Pentagon may already
be regretting the emphasis they began to place on the concept of liberation.
Wednesday 9 April 2003
US Marines moved into the Shia suburb of Saddam City in eastern Baghdad
overnight where they were welcomed. US forces which had been advancing
from three directions now have the equivalent of an armoured brigade in
the city and are planning to double that within the next 24 hours. US
forces now dominate but don't entirely control Baghdad. Isolated Iraqi
resistance continues, but not on the scale predicted. Baghdad has followed
Basra in the widespread outbreak of looting. Coalition forces are yet
to occupy the northern cities of Mosul, Kirkuk
and Tikrit, Saddam's home city and stronghold.
The BBC reported at 1852 that: "US Defence Secretary Donald
Rumsfeld says Syria has been ignoring a warning he gave last
week about giving military assistance to Iraq and that some senior Iraqis
were fleeing to Syria." Given long expressed intentions and more
recent Israeli accusations that Saddam has hidden his alleged weapons
of mass destruction in Syria, it seems highly likely that US forces will
be rolling on to Damascus before too long.
Tuesday 8 April 2003
Iraqi forces in Baghdad counter-attacked the US forces
which had occupied and were still holding the administrative centre on
the west bank of the Tigris. US tanks moved eastwards across the Jumhuriya
bridge and one fired on the Palestine Hotel on the east bank killing
two journalists. An A-10 was lost over western Baghdad.
Monday 7 April 2003
US forces launched a major attack into the centre of Baghdad
from the north-west. The American task force consisted of about 100 tanks
and other AFVs and was supported by mortars and A-10 Thunderbolt 'tank
busters'. The US forces captured the Information Ministry and a presidential
palace. Oil fires and the smoke from military action had reduced visibility
on the ground to about 500 yards. The situation was confused but it seemed
that the probe might hold ground permanently depending on the strength
of resistance.
Sunday 6 April 2003
Following Saturday's incursion into south-west Baghdad
(described by one US soldier as a "drive-by shooting") a very
large armoured column was reported to be heading for the city. TV footage
of the earlier raid on Dawra was spectacular. Some two dozen Abrams tanks
and a dozen Bradley fighting vehicles from the 3rd Infantry Division swept
up Route Eight into Baghdad's south-west suburb and were filmed shooting-up
civilian vehicles. They also met stiff fire, and at least one Abrams tank
was disabled.
The propaganda war was also hotting up with conflicting and even ridiculous
claims being made by both sides. The Iraqis had obviously not recaptured
the airport, but neither had US troops penetrated to 'down-town' Baghdad.
For outright bias delivered with gung-ho relish, however, it's hard to
beat Fox
News whose commentators would surely like to kill a few Iraqis themselves.
Elsewhere, fierce fighting had been occurring at Karbala,
while British forces launched a major assault in Basra
increasing their domination of the city. The Kurdish 'Peshmerga' forces
were making little progress in the north, partly due to lack of armour
and otherwise due to the characteristic
behaviour one expects from tribal irregulars.
Saturday 5 April 2003
Contrary to expectations Coalition forces met relatively little resistance
in their approach towards the outskirts of Baghdad which
they were now probing. Even the airport was only lightly defended, a wise
decision by the Iraqis as any positions there would have been highly exposed
and easily destroyed by superior US firepower. The whereabouts of the
Iraqi forces remained a mystery. The relatively low number of prisoners
taken and the relatively small amount of equipment left on the ground
did not account for the Iraqi formations that were supposed to have been
destroyed. It was only the spearheads of the two main attacking forces
which had reached Baghdad. The forces were currently strung out in long
columns and could have been vulnerable if there were large numbers of
undefeated Iraqi troops still at large outside Baghdad, especially if
the sandstorms had begun again.
Despite the mainstream media focus on Baghdad, battles continued in the
other urban centres lying on the US supply routes.
Friday 4 April 2003
US forces completed their takeover of the airport which is 12 miles to
the west of the administrative centre of Baghdad. Baghdad
was defended by the Hammurabi Division to the west, the Medina Division
to the south and the Nida Division to the east. These Divisions may have
lost equipment, but it seemed likely that most of their manpower would
have melted back into the city. Baghdad lost power and water. The cause
of this was unknown but there was speculation that a Blackout
Bomb may have been used. This contains numerous chemically treated
carbon graphite filaments which short-circuit electrical power distribution
equipment. Coalition Special Forces were claimed to be operating in the
city having come in under cover of darkness.
British troops moved further into Basra and the Iraqis
lost more territory to the Kurds in the north.
UPI reported
that Iran was planning to infiltrate "irregular paramilitary units
across their border with Iraq to harass American soldiers once Saddam
Hussein's regime" had fallen.
Thursday 3 April 2003
Iraqi forces near Karbala brought down a Black Hawk
transport helicopter with small arms fire and an FA-18 Hornet jet with
a SAM.
Elements of the Republican Guard's Hammurabi Mechanised Division were
moving south from Baghdad to block Coalition forces.
After days in which the Coalition forces were repeatedly described as
being "only 50 miles from Baghdad" it was reported that some
were within 20 miles of the city's outskirts.
British forces continued to besiege Basra, gradually
tightening the noose, although they were leaving an escape corridor. The
British Press made much of the fact that while the British are cool, disciplined
and good at dealing with the locals, the Americans are gung-ho, jumpy
and have an antagonistic attitude towards Iraqi civilians. British forces
did, however, admit the use of cluster bombs against concentrations of
Iraqi fighters in Basra. Cluster-bomb rounds were being fired from the
AS-90 255mm self-propelled howitzer. The bomblets scatter over a wide
area and some 5 per cent fail to explode on impact leaving a residual
threat to civilians.
Later in the day Coalition and Iraqi forces were reported to be contesting
Saddam International Airport. Another account suggested
that Coalition forces had already captured it. The Pentagon claimed that
two Iraqi divisions had been destoryed, but journalist Gavin Hewitt with
the US Army's 3rd Infantry Division reported
"few signs of the burnt-out tanks or the bodies expected if an entire
Iraqi division had been destroyed."
Wednesday 2 April 2003
Coalition forces surrounded the holy city of Karbala
and were moving north of it to capture the Karbala-Al Iskandariyah-Al
Hillah triangle. Coalition forces claimed that the Medina Division of
the Republican Guard defending this side of Baghdad had been reduced to
half strength by the relentless aerial bombardment.
Tne 1st Marine Division advancing from Nasiryah appeared
to have brushed past the outer defences of the Republican Guard's Baghdad
Division at Kut, and then turned westwards to proceed
along the main highway to Baghdad. Another account claimed that the Baghdad
Divison had been destroyed rather than isolated.
Fighting was also reported at Diwaniyah, due east of
Najaf. Fighting continued at Najaf, Nasiriyah
and Basra. While it was possible to contain Karbala and
Basra, Coalition forces had been forced to fight for Najaf and Nasiriyah
because they command crossing points over the Euphrates.
The American public was being prepared for heavy casualties in the assault
on Baghdad, a prospect guaranteed by Rumsfeld's commitment to "unconditional
surrender".
Tuesday 1 April 2003
Fighting continued at Hindiya, Najaf,
Nasiryah and Shatra, which is north of Nasiryah
on the road to Al Kut, as well as at Basra.
In Najaf US troops fired on a vehicle at a checkpoint
killing women and children. This was not the first incident of this sort,
but it was the first to gain major media publicity. At this point, more
British troops had been killed by American than Iraqi fire.
Monday 31 March 2003
Coalition forces attempted to regain the initiative with heavy fighting
at Najaf, Samawah and Nasiriyah
to consolidate lines of supply. There was also some indication of a renewed
advance with fighting to the east of Karbala at Hindiya.
Newsweek
(7 April 2003 issue) reported that the two Abrams M1A1 tanks lost at Samawah
(the first two ever to be lost in battle) were knocked out by Russian
AT-14 Kornet ATGMs.
Seymour Hersh wrote
in The New Yorker magazine that on at least six occasions
Donald Rumsfeld had demanded and succeeded in reducing
the planned commitment of ground troops. The same report suggested that
carriers are running out of satellite-guided bombs and that “much
of the supply of Tomahawk guided missiles has been expended”.
In an address to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee,
Colin Powell followed
Donald Rumsfeld in issuing warnings to Syria and Iran.
Sunday 30 March 2003
An article from a journalist embedded with US Marines at Nasiriyah,
'US
Marines turn fire on civilians at the bridge of death', provided a
graphic and disturbing account of how in response to guerrilla resistance
they have developed a trigger-happy attitude to Iraqi civilians, evoking
strong memories of Vietnam. US artillery shelled the city while helicopter
gunships fired rockets into waterfront buildings. Although the Iraqis
failed to destroy the bridges, Nasiriyah and Najaf had
both proved to be effective pinch-points. Pictures of an Abrams tank and
a military bulldozer captured by the Iraqis were shown on televison.
Fighting continued in Basra where British forces were
attempting to close off the north-east to Iraqi reinforcement.
Saturday 29 March 2003
By now the Coalition's initial strategy had appeared to fail. A military
analyst in The Times reported that over 40 per cent of Coalition
ground combat strength was now assigned to protection of the rear. The
Times also corroborated Internet reports that the Pentagon was delaying
the publication of casualty figures.
It seemed that the next main battle would probably be at Karbala
which was defended by the Medina Division of the Republican Guard with
10-12,000 men and some 200 T72 tanks.
Fighting contnued at an-Najaf (population 500,000) and
al-Nasiriyah (population 270,000) where the Coalition
supply line supporting the salient trying to push towards al-Kut
crosses two bridges vulnerable to enemy action, one over the Euphrates
and another over a canal running parallel to it.
Friday 28 March 2003
The German webzine Telepolis discussed
the views of German historians who believe that if the regime survived
it would be impossible for Coalition forces to conquer Baghdad without
destroying it. An English-language translation can be found on the Russian
website, IRAQWAR.RU.
The second translation is the best.
It was now obvious that the Coalition advance has stalled. The most suprising
admission came from the US Army's senior ground commander in Iraq, Lt
Gen William S Wallace of V Corps, who had complained that: "The enemy
we're fighting is a bit different than the one we war-gamed against because
of these paramilitary forces..."
Richard Perle - one of the war's major architects –
resigned
as Chairman of the Pentagon’s Policy Advisory Board following conflict-of-interest
allegations. He remained as an ordinary member.
Criticised for his optimistically economical deployment of troops, Donald
Rumsfeld announced plans to double the US troop commitment. Despite
the prediction by Rumsfeld protege Kenneth "Bomb
Iraq Now!" Adelman that a war against Iraq would
be a "cakewalk", Coalition forces obviously do not have enough
troops to mount a major assault on Baghdad whilst protecting their over-stretched
line of supply, and would now have to await reinforcements before the
campaign could be progressed further.
Rumsfeld accused
Syria of supplying Iraq with night-vision goggles and other "military
equipment", and threatened that it would be held accountable. He
also threatened Iran over the alleged infiltration of members of the Badr
Corps, Iranian-trained Iraqi oppositionists.
21 - 27 March 2003
The war began ahead of schedule with an unsuccessful attempt to assassinate
Saddam Hussein in an air strike. The concept of essentially air power-orientated
"effects based warfare" - colloquially referred to as "shock
and awe" - was developed by by US defence analyst Harlan
Ullman.
The initial US advance was rapid, but that was through empty desert.
Contrary to expectations, the Iraqis did not welcome invading troops with
flowers, the Iraqi armed forces did not collapse and the Iraqi government
was not overthrown. In fact the Iraqi resistance proved to be motivated,
fierce and skillfully conducted.
The Iraqis failed to blow the bridges over the Euphrates, but conducted
guerrilla attacks on rear-echelon troops in a string of towns along the
river. Fierce fighting was reported in Karbala, an-Najaf,
Samawah and al-Nasiriyah, threatening
the US supply line. The Coalition advance was also severely hampered by
serious sandstorms. In the Shi'ite south, US Marines failed to secure
Umm Qasr and this job was taken over by the British Royal
Marines. The predicted capitulation of Iraq's second city of Basra
failed to occur, creating another threat to Coalition supply lines. A
city that was supposed to be liberated or contained and by-passed was
declared to be a military target and actively besieged by UK forces. A
tank battle between 14 British Challenger IIs and 14 Iraqi T55s resulted
in total elimination of the latter owing to the vastly superior fire-control
systems of the former. 1000 US troops were parachuted into Kurdish territory
to open a northern front, a rather eccentric gesture as others arrived
by helicopter. Although some Kurds were collaborating with the Americans,
most were probably hanging back in case of intervention by America's other
ally, the Turks.
The allies appeared to have pursued a classic Blitzkrieg strategy
- a penetration in depth on a narrow front, the disruption of rear areas,
the fracturing of lines of communication, and , above all, great encirclements.
But the Iraqis didn’t provide any forces to be encircled, and the
US forces appeared to be facing a 'Battle of Stalingrad' with their line
of supply under threat at several points. In the sense that things did
not work out as planned, the Coalition suffered a defeat.
© armed-combat.com 25 March 2003. Last update is latest date
in diary.
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